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Inter vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Inter
Inter
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
AC Milan
AC Milan
Romelu Lukaku 90'
Stefan de Vrij 70'
Matías Vecino 53'
Marcelo Brozović 51'
Zlatan Ibrahimović 45'
Ante Rebić 40'
2/9/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 23Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Inter50%
×Draw24%
AC Milan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
1.67
AC Milan
1.14

Inter creates 46% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 33 away

creates per match

Inter
2.11
AC Milan
1.50

allows per match

Inter
0.77
AC Milan
1.23

finishing

Inter+0.04on par
AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inter or draw
74%
Inter or AC Milan
76%
Draw or AC Milan
50%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
26%
AC Milan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
81%
Inter 2+ goals
50%
Inter 3+ goals
23%
AC Milan 1+ goals
68%
AC Milan 2+ goals
32%
AC Milan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
66%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.77 · 33 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.11 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.67

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Inter defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Inter scores more
50%
level
24%
AC Milan scores more
26%

Inter at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Zlatan IbrahimovićAC MilanAC Milan · F
8.0

Match Events

40'
Ante Rebić↳ Zlatan Ibrahimović
45'
Zlatan Ibrahimović↳ Franck Kessié
47'
Matías Vecino
51'
Marcelo Brozović
53'
Matías Vecino↳ Alexis Sánchez
55'
Milan Škriniar
55'
Nicolò Barella
62'
Franck Kessié
70'
Stefan de Vrij↳ Antonio Candreva
72'
Christian Eriksen← Alexis Sánchez
79'
Andrea Conti
80'
Victor Moses← Antonio Candreva
80'
Rafael Leão← Samu Castillejo
81'
Lucas Paquetá← Franck Kessié
84'
Giacomo Bonaventura← Ante Rebić
90'
Romelu Lukaku↳ Victor Moses
90'
Romelu Lukaku
90'
Cristiano Biraghi← Ashley Young

Possession

43%Inter

Shots

16Inter

Pass accuracy

49%Inter

Statistics

InterAC
Overview
43%Possession57%
16Total Shots17
7Corners6
6Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots17
7On Target2
4Off Target7
5Blocked8
9Inside Box7
7Outside Box10
Passing
43%Possession57%
390Total Passes499
314Accurate Passes423
81%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls13
4Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Inter vs AC Milan

Inter beat AC Milan 4-2 in Serie A on February 9, 2020.

Goals: Ante Rebić (40'), Zlatan Ibrahimović (45'), Marcelo Brozović (51'), Matías Vecino (53'), Stefan de Vrij (70'), Romelu Lukaku (90').

AC Milan controlled possession (57%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.