Inter Turku 1–2 VPS: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Inter Turku

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

VPS

F. Valenčič 44'

S. Morrissey 77'

J. Voutilainen 61'

3/30/2019

Suomen Cup · Quarter-finalsKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Inter Turku37%

×Draw20%

VPS43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter TurkuExpected goals in this matchVPS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.31

Inter Turku

2.13

VPS

2.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

3.17

creates per match

4.00

0.61

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Inter Turku

3.17

VPS

4.00

allows per match

Inter Turku

0.61

VPS

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par

VPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

VPS →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw

57%

Inter Turku or VPS

80%

Draw or VPS

63%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+

20%

VPS wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals

88%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

63%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

35%

VPS 1+ goals

90%

VPS 2+ goals

67%

VPS 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

46%

VPS (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

VPS away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 3.17 + VPS defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.13

VPS attack 4.00 + Inter Turku defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Inter Turku scores more

37%

level

20%

VPS scores more

43%

VPS at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "VPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

F. Valenčič

46'

K. Stavrothanasopoulos← S. Alanko

61'

S. Strandvall← A. Laatikainen

61'

J. Voutilainen

77'

S. Morrissey

81'

H. Boakai← A. Paananen

81'

N. Mäenpää← M. Kuningas

90+1'

S. Sillah← M. Sarr

Inter

VPS

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Jose Riveiro

81'▲H. Boakai←▼A. Paananen

81'▲N. Mäenpää←▼M. Kuningas

Inter Turku substitutes

BoakaiMäenpääHoskonenMarttinenKamyOjalaTenho

Manager: P. Vuorinen

46'▲K. Stavrothanasopoulos←▼S. Alanko

61'▲S. Strandvall←▼A. Laatikainen

90+1'▲S. Sillah←▼M. Sarr

VPS substitutes

StavrothanasopoulosStrandvallSillahIrumwaEriksson