Inter Turku 0–0 SJK: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Inter Turku

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SJK

4/3/2021

Suomen Cup · Quarter-finalsKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Inter Turku52%

×Draw20%

SJK28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter TurkuExpected goals in this matchSJK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.66

Inter Turku

2.31

SJK

1.66

Inter Turku creates 39% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

3.17

creates per match

2.70

0.61

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Inter Turku

3.17

SJK

2.70

allows per match

Inter Turku

0.61

SJK

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par

SJK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

SJK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw

72%

Inter Turku or SJK

80%

Draw or SJK

48%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+

32%

SJK wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals

90%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

67%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

40%

SJK 1+ goals

81%

SJK 2+ goals

49%

SJK 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

65%

SJK (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

SJK away — creates 2.70, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 3.17 + SJK defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.31

SJK attack 2.70 + Inter Turku defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Turku scores more

52%

level

20%

SJK scores more

28%

Inter Turku at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff