Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Turku vs Mariehamn — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Inter Turku
Inter Turku
FT
1 – 0
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
4/17/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Turku Energia Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Inter Turku70%
×Draw18%
Mariehamn12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku
2.29
Mariehamn
0.84

Inter Turku creates 173% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Inter Turku
3.00
Mariehamn
0.86

allows per match

Inter Turku
0.83
Mariehamn
1.57

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw
88%
Inter Turku or Mariehamn
82%
Draw or Mariehamn
30%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+
46%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals
90%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
66%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
40%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
57%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
21%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)
85%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 3.00 + Mariehamn defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Mariehamn attack 0.86 + Inter Turku defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Inter Turku scores more
70%
level
18%
Mariehamn scores more
12%

Inter Turku at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Turku vs Mariehamn

Inter Turku beat Mariehamn 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Turku Energia Areena in Åbo.