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Inter Turku vs Mariehamn — Veikkausliiga 2018

Inter Turku
Inter Turku
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mariehamn
Mariehamn
8/4/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 22Veritas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Inter Turku53%
×Draw24%
Mariehamn23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku
1.69
Mariehamn
1.03

Inter Turku creates 64% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Inter Turku
1.68
Mariehamn
1.02

allows per match

Inter Turku
1.04
Mariehamn
1.71

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw
77%
Inter Turku or Mariehamn
76%
Draw or Mariehamn
47%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+
29%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals
82%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
50%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
24%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
64%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
28%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)
70%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.71 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 1.68 + Mariehamn defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Mariehamn attack 1.02 + Inter Turku defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Inter Turku scores more
53%
level
24%
Mariehamn scores more
23%

Inter Turku at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Inter Turku 3–0 Mariehamn

Inter Turku beat Mariehamn 3-0 in Veikkausliiga on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Veritas Stadium in Turku.