Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Turku vs Lahti — Veikkausliiga 2018

Inter Turku
Inter Turku
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lahti
Lahti
6/30/2021VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 14Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Inter Turku52%
×Draw25%
Lahti23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku
1.62
Lahti
0.99

Inter Turku creates 64% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 101 away

creates per match

Inter Turku
1.68
Lahti
0.93

allows per match

Inter Turku
1.04
Lahti
1.56

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw
77%
Inter Turku or Lahti
75%
Draw or Lahti
48%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+
28%
Lahti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals
80%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
48%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
22%
Lahti 1+ goals
63%
Lahti 2+ goals
26%
Lahti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)
69%
Lahti (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

Lahti away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.56 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 1.68 + Lahti defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.62

Lahti attack 0.93 + Inter Turku defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Turku scores more
52%
level
25%
Lahti scores more
23%

Inter Turku at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Turku vs Lahti

Inter Turku and Lahti drew 1-1 in Veikkausliiga on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.