Inter Turku 2–0 Ilves: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Inter Turku

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ilves

B. Källman 82', 62'

3/29/2018

Suomen Cup · Quarter-finalsKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Inter Turku53%

×Draw21%

Ilves26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter TurkuExpected goals in this matchIlves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.44

Inter Turku

2.12

Ilves

1.44

Inter Turku creates 47% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

3.17

creates per match

2.28

0.61

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Inter Turku

3.17

Ilves

2.28

allows per match

Inter Turku

0.61

Ilves

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par

Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

Ilves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw

74%

Inter Turku or Ilves

79%

Draw or Ilves

47%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+

31%

Ilves wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals

88%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

62%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

35%

Ilves 1+ goals

76%

Ilves 2+ goals

42%

Ilves 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

67%

Ilves (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 3.17, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Ilves away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 3.17 + Ilves defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 2.12

Ilves attack 2.28 + Inter Turku defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Inter Turku scores more

53%

level

21%

Ilves scores more

26%

Inter Turku at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

B. Källman

69'

N. Jokelainen← T. Siira

69'

I. Thiaw← S. Haarala

76'

A. Ademi← T. Furuholm

78'

A. Lehtonen← T. Rannankari

82'

B. Källman

90'

J. Järvistö← B. Källman

Inter

Ilves

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Källman

Manager: F. Piccareta

76'▲A. Ademi←▼T. Furuholm

90'▲J. Järvistö←▼B. Källman

Inter Turku substitutes

AdemiJärvistöKotanenMastokangasViholainenInkeroinen

Manager: J. Wiss

69'▲N. Jokelainen←▼T. Siira

69'▲I. Thiaw←▼S. Haarala

78'▲A. Lehtonen←▼T. Rannankari

Ilves substitutes

JokelainenThiawLehtonenAliLuukkanenTanskaOjala