Inter Turku vs HJK Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2024
Inter Turku are unbeaten in 18 straight
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Inter Turku39%HJK Helsinki43%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 4 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over88
- Under12
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes85
- No15
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Inter Turku ↓
Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Inter Turku at home — creates 4.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches
HJK Helsinki away — creates 4.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Inter Turku attack 4.75 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 2.48
HJK Helsinki attack 4.20 + Inter Turku defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.60
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
HJK Helsinki at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Both teams score in 78% of Inter Turku’s matches
- HJK Helsinki score first in only 35% of matches
- Both sides lean high-scoring (67% and 66% over 2.5)
- 67% of Inter Turku’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- 66% of HJK Helsinki’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- 39% of HJK Helsinki’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Inter Turku host HJK Helsinki on Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the Suomen Cup 2024/2025 season.
Inter Turku vs HJK Helsinki — Match Preview
Inter Turku face HJK Helsinki on September 5, 2026 in this Suomen Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Inter Turku host HJK Helsinki at Tammelan Stadion.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.