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Inter Turku vs HIFK Helsinki — Veikkausliiga 2018

Inter Turku
Inter Turku
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
8/14/2020VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 9Veritas Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Inter Turku50%
×Draw25%
HIFK Helsinki25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Turku
1.62
HIFK Helsinki
1.06

Inter Turku creates 53% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 52 away

creates per match

Inter Turku
1.68
HIFK Helsinki
1.08

allows per match

Inter Turku
1.04
HIFK Helsinki
1.56

finishing

Inter Turku+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inter Turku or draw
75%
Inter Turku or HIFK Helsinki
75%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
50%

Winning margin

Inter Turku wins by 2+
26%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Inter Turku 1+ goals
80%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
48%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
22%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
65%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
29%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku (draw refunded)
67%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku attack 1.68 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.62

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + Inter Turku defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Inter Turku scores more
50%
level
25%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
25%

Inter Turku at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Turku vs HIFK Helsinki

Inter Turku beat HIFK Helsinki 3-2 in Veikkausliiga on August 14, 2020.

The match was played at Veritas Stadion in Åbo.