Inter Moengotapoe 1–3 Notch: Result & Stats

Inter Moengotapoe

FT

1 – 3

Notch

7/30/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 19Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Inter Moengotapoe50%

×Draw21%

Notch29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter MoengotapoeExpected goals in this matchNotch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.55

Inter Moengotapoe

2.08

Notch

1.55

Inter Moengotapoe creates 34% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

2.69

creates per match

1.76

1.34

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Inter Moengotapoe

2.69

Notch

1.76

allows per match

Inter Moengotapoe

1.34

Notch

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Moengotapoe+0.00on par

Notch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Moengotapoe ↓

Notch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Inter Moengotapoe or draw

71%

Inter Moengotapoe or Notch

79%

Draw or Notch

50%

Winning margin

Inter Moengotapoe wins by 2+

29%

Notch wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Inter Moengotapoe 1+ goals

87%

Inter Moengotapoe 2+ goals

61%

Inter Moengotapoe 3+ goals

34%

Notch 1+ goals

79%

Notch 2+ goals

46%

Notch 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Inter Moengotapoe (draw refunded)

63%

Notch (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Moengotapoe at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

Notch away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Moengotapoe attack 2.69 + Notch defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.08

Notch attack 1.76 + Inter Moengotapoe defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Inter Moengotapoe scores more

50%

level

21%

Notch scores more

29%

Inter Moengotapoe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Inter Moengotapoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff