Inter Miami II 1–2 Philadelphia Union II

Inter Miami II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Philadelphia Union II

5/7/2022

MLS Next Pro · Round 7DRV PNK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Inter Miami II35%

×Draw21%

Philadelphia Union II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Miami IIExpected goals in this matchPhiladelphia Union II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.02

Inter Miami II

1.79

Philadelphia Union II

2.02

Philadelphia Union II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 56 away

1.96

creates per match

1.95

2.08

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Inter Miami II

1.96

Philadelphia Union II

1.95

allows per match

Inter Miami II

2.08

Philadelphia Union II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Philadelphia Union II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami II ↓

Philadelphia Union II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Inter Miami II or draw

56%

Inter Miami II or Philadelphia Union II

79%

Draw or Philadelphia Union II

65%

Winning margin

Inter Miami II wins by 2+

18%

Philadelphia Union II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Inter Miami II 1+ goals

83%

Inter Miami II 2+ goals

53%

Inter Miami II 3+ goals

26%

Philadelphia Union II 1+ goals

87%

Philadelphia Union II 2+ goals

60%

Philadelphia Union II 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)

44%

Philadelphia Union II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

Philadelphia Union II away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.61 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami II attack 1.96 + Philadelphia Union II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.79

Philadelphia Union II attack 1.95 + Inter Miami II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Inter Miami II scores more

35%

level

21%

Philadelphia Union II scores more

44%

Philadelphia Union II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Philadelphia Union II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff