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Inter Miami II vs FC Cincinnati II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Inter Miami II
Inter Miami II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Cincinnati II
FC Cincinnati II
6/20/2022MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 14DRV PNK Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Inter Miami II50%
×Draw21%
FC Cincinnati II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Miami II
2.12
FC Cincinnati II
1.58

Inter Miami II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 53 away

creates per match

Inter Miami II
1.96
FC Cincinnati II
1.09

allows per match

Inter Miami II
2.08
FC Cincinnati II
2.28

finishing

Inter Miami II+0.00on par
FC Cincinnati II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami II ↓

FC Cincinnati II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Inter Miami II or draw
71%
Inter Miami II or FC Cincinnati II
79%
Draw or FC Cincinnati II
50%

Winning margin

Inter Miami II wins by 2+
29%
FC Cincinnati II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Inter Miami II 1+ goals
88%
Inter Miami II 2+ goals
62%
Inter Miami II 3+ goals
35%
FC Cincinnati II 1+ goals
79%
FC Cincinnati II 2+ goals
47%
FC Cincinnati II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)
63%
FC Cincinnati II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 2.08 · 48 matches

FC Cincinnati II away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami II attack 1.96 + FC Cincinnati II defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.12

FC Cincinnati II attack 1.09 + Inter Miami II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Inter Miami II scores more
50%
level
21%
FC Cincinnati II scores more
29%

Inter Miami II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Inter Miami II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Miami II vs FC Cincinnati II

Inter Miami II beat FC Cincinnati II 4-0 in MLS Next Pro on June 20, 2022.

The match was played at DRV PNK Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.