Inter Club d'Escaldes 6–0 Penya Encarnada

Inter Club d'Escaldes

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Penya Encarnada

A. Llovet 77'

Rafinha 50', 42'

Roberto Torres 28'

G. López 12'

Ángel de la Torre 6'

1/12/2025

Copa Constitució · 1st RoundCamp de Futbol La Massana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Inter Club d'Escaldes69%

×Draw19%

Penya Encarnada12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Club d'EscaldesExpected goals in this matchPenya Encarnada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.72

Inter Club d'Escaldes

2.11

Penya Encarnada

0.72

Inter Club d'Escaldes creates 193% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.22

creates per match

1.00

0.44

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Inter Club d'Escaldes

2.22

Penya Encarnada

1.00

allows per match

Inter Club d'Escaldes

0.44

Penya Encarnada

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Club d'Escaldes+0.00on par

Penya Encarnada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Club d'Escaldes ↓

Penya Encarnada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Inter Club d'Escaldes or draw

88%

Inter Club d'Escaldes or Penya Encarnada

81%

Draw or Penya Encarnada

31%

Winning margin

Inter Club d'Escaldes wins by 2+

45%

Penya Encarnada wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Inter Club d'Escaldes 1+ goals

88%

Inter Club d'Escaldes 2+ goals

62%

Inter Club d'Escaldes 3+ goals

35%

Penya Encarnada 1+ goals

51%

Penya Encarnada 2+ goals

16%

Penya Encarnada 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Inter Club d'Escaldes (draw refunded)

86%

Penya Encarnada (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Club d'Escaldes at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Penya Encarnada away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Club d'Escaldes attack 2.22 + Penya Encarnada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.11

Penya Encarnada attack 1.00 + Inter Club d'Escaldes defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Inter Club d'Escaldes scores more

69%

level

19%

Penya Encarnada scores more

12%

Inter Club d'Escaldes at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Inter Club d'Escaldes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

12'

28'

42'

50'

57'

S. Agüero← J. Assoubre

57'

Sascha Andreu← Joseba Muguruza

57'

A. Llovet← Rafinha

65'

Viti Martínez← Roberto Torres

70'

C. Puentes← Damià Sabater

77'

A. Llovet

Inter

Penya

1

15

4

23

3

10

24

19

9

17

7

13

3

22

▼

Muguruza

4

Feher

15

Sánchez

31

⚽

▼

Torres

10

⚽

Torre

6

▼

Sabater

12

▼

Assoubre

7

⚽

López

11

⚽2

▼

Rafinha

Manager: Felip Ortiz

57'▲S. Agüero←▼J. Assoubre

57'▲Sascha Andreu←▼Joseba Muguruza

57'▲A. Llovet←▼Rafinha

65'▲Viti Martínez←▼Roberto Torres

70'▲C. Puentes←▼Damià Sabater

Inter Club d'Escaldes substitutes

17Agüero19Andreu70Llovet8Martínez5Puentes1Pedernera28Juncà49Gallego

Manager: Javi García

Penya Encarnada substitutes

13Sousa12Ruiz

Match Recap: Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Penya Encarnada

Inter Club d'Escaldes beat Penya Encarnada 6-0 in Copa Constitució on January 12, 2025.

Goals: Ángel de la Torre (6'), G. López (12'), Roberto Torres (28'), Rafinha (42', 50'), A. Llovet (77').

The match was played at Camp de Futbol La Massana in La Massana.

Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Penya Encarnada — Copa Constitució 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Penya Encarnada