Ingolstadt U19 1–2 Unterhaching U19: Result & Stats

Ingolstadt U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Unterhaching U19

M. Udebuluzor 77'

A. Hirtlreiter 52'

J. Birkl 33' (OG)

10/16/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 7BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Ingolstadt U1952%

×Draw22%

Unterhaching U1927%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ingolstadt U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.37

Ingolstadt U19

1.98

Unterhaching U19

1.37

Ingolstadt U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 55 away

2.01

creates per match

1.33

1.41

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Ingolstadt U19

2.01

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Ingolstadt U19

1.41

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ingolstadt U19 or draw

73%

Ingolstadt U19 or Unterhaching U19

78%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

48%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

30%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

86%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

59%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

31%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

75%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

40%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt U19 at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.01 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.98

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

52%

level

22%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

27%

Ingolstadt U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

M. Perkuhn← M. Lamby

33'

J. BirklOwn goal

46'

M. Udebuluzor← L. Perić

52'

A. Hirtlreiter

58'

G. Conti← D. Sekulovic

69'

F. Roggermeier← J. Gottmeier

72'

M. Atak← D. Udogu

77'

M. Hohmann← A. Hirtlreiter

77'

M. Udebuluzor

86'

L. Bucher← F. Seidel

88'

B. Happi-Monthe← J. Perconti

Ingolstadt

Unterhaching

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Wittmann

46'▲M. Udebuluzor←▼L. Perić

58'▲G. Conti←▼D. Sekulovic

72'▲M. Atak←▼D. Udogu

88'▲B. Happi-Monthe←▼J. Perconti

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

UdebuluzorContiAtakHappi-MontheBöslHotiDedaj

Manager: S. Teichmann

28'▲M. Perkuhn←▼M. Lamby

69'▲F. Roggermeier←▼J. Gottmeier

77'▲M. Hohmann←▼A. Hirtlreiter

86'▲L. Bucher←▼F. Seidel

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

PerkuhnRoggermeierHohmannBucherEcklHeideKraus

Match Recap: Ingolstadt U19 vs Unterhaching U19

Unterhaching U19 beat Ingolstadt U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 16, 2021.

Goals: J. Birkl (33' o.g.), A. Hirtlreiter (52'), M. Udebuluzor (77').

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.

Ingolstadt U19 vs Unterhaching U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ingolstadt U19 vs Unterhaching U19