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Ingolstadt II vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
M. Udebuluzor 58'
L. Kreit Casale 47', 46'
N. Hock 49'
D. Michel 34' (pen)
8/15/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 6BZA Süd-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Ingolstadt II54%
×Draw21%
Würzburger FV25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
2.12
Würzburger FV
1.41

Ingolstadt II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.27
Würzburger FV
1.32

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.50
Würzburger FV
1.97

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
75%
Ingolstadt II or Würzburger FV
79%
Draw or Würzburger FV
46%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
32%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
88%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
62%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
35%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
76%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
41%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
68%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.97 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.27 + Würzburger FV defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.12

Würzburger FV attack 1.32 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
54%
level
21%
Würzburger FV scores more
25%

Ingolstadt II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
D. MichelPenalty
46'
L. Kreit Casale
47'
L. Kreit Casale
49'
N. Hock
58'
M. Udebuluzor
90+5'
J. Perconti
90+5'
J. Perconti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ingolstadt II vs Würzburger FV

Ingolstadt II beat Würzburger FV 3-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 15, 2023.

Goals: D. Michel (34' pen), L. Kreit Casale (46', 47'), N. Hock (49'), M. Udebuluzor (58').

The match was played at BZA Süd-Ost in Ingolstadt.