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Ingolstadt II vs Großbardorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
Preview
13:00
Großbardorf
Großbardorf
3/20/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 24
54%
Ingolstadt II
model favours
54%21%25%

Großbardorf win just 11% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ingolstadt II54%
×Draw21%
Großbardorf25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
2.18
Großbardorf
1.43

Ingolstadt II creates 52% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.24
Großbardorf
1.41

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.45
Großbardorf
2.12

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Großbardorf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Großbardorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
75%
Ingolstadt II or Großbardorf
79%
Draw or Großbardorf
46%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
33%
Großbardorf wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
89%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
64%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
37%
Großbardorf 1+ goals
76%
Großbardorf 2+ goals
42%
Großbardorf 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
68%
Großbardorf (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Großbardorf away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.24 + Großbardorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.18

Großbardorf attack 1.41 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
54%
level
21%
Großbardorf scores more
25%

Ingolstadt II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Ingolstadt II and Großbardorf have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LWDL
Großbardorf
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ingolstadt II face Großbardorf (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Ingolstadt II hosting Großbardorf. Match starts March 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.