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Ingolstadt II vs Eintracht Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
Preview
12:00
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
4/3/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 26
42%
Ingolstadt II
model favours
42%23%35%

Eintracht Bamberg raise their game against the top half — 56% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Ingolstadt II42%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Bamberg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
1.76
Eintracht Bamberg
1.57

Ingolstadt II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.24
Eintracht Bamberg
1.70

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.45
Eintracht Bamberg
1.27

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
65%
Ingolstadt II or Eintracht Bamberg
77%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
58%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
22%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
83%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
52%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
26%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
79%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
46%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
55%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.24 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.76

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.70 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
42%
level
23%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
35%

Ingolstadt II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LWDL
Bamberg
LWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ingolstadt II face Eintracht Bamberg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Ingolstadt II hosting Eintracht Bamberg. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.