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Ingolstadt II vs Cham — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
Preview
12:00
Cham
Cham
9/12/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 10
Big match
48%
Ingolstadt II
model favours
48%23%30%
1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ingolstadt II48%
×Draw23%
Cham30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ingolstadt II
1.87
Cham
1.44

Ingolstadt II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Ingolstadt II
2.24
Cham
1.44

allows per match

Ingolstadt II
1.45
Cham
1.49

finishing

Ingolstadt II+0.00on par
Cham+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ingolstadt II ↓

Cham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ingolstadt II or draw
70%
Ingolstadt II or Cham
77%
Draw or Cham
52%

Winning margin

Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
26%
Cham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
85%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
56%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
29%
Cham 1+ goals
76%
Cham 2+ goals
42%
Cham 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
61%
Cham (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ingolstadt II at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Cham away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ingolstadt II attack 2.24 + Cham defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.87

Cham attack 1.44 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ingolstadt II scores more
48%
level
23%
Cham scores more
30%

Ingolstadt II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ingolstadt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LWDL
Cham
LLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ingolstadt II vs Cham — Match Preview

Ingolstadt II face Cham on September 12, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.