Indy Eleven 2–4 Tulsa Roughnecks: Result & Stats

Indy Eleven

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Tulsa Roughnecks

10/1/2022

USL Championship · Round 43Michael A. Carroll Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Indy Eleven49%

×Draw24%

Tulsa Roughnecks27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indy ElevenExpected goals in this matchTulsa Roughnecks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.16

Indy Eleven

1.65

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.16

Indy Eleven creates 42% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 130 away

1.49

creates per match

1.19

1.12

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Indy Eleven

1.49

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.19

allows per match

Indy Eleven

1.12

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw

73%

Indy Eleven or Tulsa Roughnecks

76%

Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks

51%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

26%

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

81%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

49%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

23%

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

69%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

32%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

64%

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.65

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Indy Eleven scores more

49%

level

24%

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

27%

Indy Eleven at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff