Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Indy Eleven vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
9/9/2020USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 20Lucas Oil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Indy Eleven53%
×Draw23%
Sporting KC II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.83
Sporting KC II
1.15

Indy Eleven creates 59% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 66 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
76%
Indy Eleven or Sporting KC II
77%
Draw or Sporting KC II
47%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
30%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
84%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
54%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
28%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
68%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
32%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
69%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 135 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
53%
level
23%
Sporting KC II scores more
24%

Indy Eleven at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 2–1 Sporting KC II

Indy Eleven beat Sporting KC II 2-1 in USL Championship on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.