Indy Eleven 1–1 Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Indy Eleven

FT

1 – 1

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

4/24/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Grand Park Championship Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Indy Eleven42%

×Draw29%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indy ElevenExpected goals in this matchPittsburgh Riverhounds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.98

Indy Eleven

1.25

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

0.98

Indy Eleven creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

1.33

0.63

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Indy Eleven

1.50

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.33

allows per match

Indy Eleven

0.63

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Pittsburgh Riverhounds+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Pittsburgh Riverhounds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw

71%

Indy Eleven or Pittsburgh Riverhounds

71%

Draw or Pittsburgh Riverhounds

58%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

19%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

71%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

36%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

13%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1+ goals

62%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2+ goals

26%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

59%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Pittsburgh Riverhounds away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.50 + Pittsburgh Riverhounds defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack 1.33 + Indy Eleven defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Indy Eleven scores more

42%

level

29%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds scores more

29%

Indy Eleven at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff