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Indy Eleven vs Miami FC — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
Preview
23:00
Miami FC
Miami FC
9/26/2026USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Group StageMichael A. Carroll Stadium
Big match
48%
Indy Eleven
model favours
48%25%27%

65% of Indy Eleven’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Indy Eleven48%
×Draw25%
Miami FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.55
Miami FC
1.10

Indy Eleven creates 41% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 100 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.49
Miami FC
1.07

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.12
Miami FC
1.61

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Miami FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Miami FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
73%
Indy Eleven or Miami FC
75%
Draw or Miami FC
52%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
24%
Miami FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
79%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
46%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
20%
Miami FC 1+ goals
67%
Miami FC 2+ goals
30%
Miami FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
64%
Miami FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.12 · 134 matches

Miami FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.61 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.49 + Miami FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.55

Miami FC attack 1.07 + Indy Eleven defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
48%
level
25%
Miami FC scores more
27%

Indy Eleven at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Indy Eleven score first in only 26% of matches
  • Miami FC score first in only 26% of matches
  • Miami FC win just 8% of their away games
  • Indy Eleven win 70% of their home games
  • 31% of Miami FC’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Eleven
LLWDL
FC
WWDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Indy Eleven vs Miami FC — Match Preview

Indy Eleven face Miami FC on September 26, 2026 in this USL Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Indy Eleven host Miami FC at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.