Indy Eleven 3–0 Forward Madison: Result & Stats

Indy Eleven

FT

3 – 0

Forward Madison

4/17/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Grand Park Championship Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Indy Eleven73%

×Draw19%

Forward Madison8%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Indy ElevenExpected goals in this matchForward Madison

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.48

Indy Eleven

1.97

Forward Madison

0.48

Indy Eleven creates 310% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

0.33

0.63

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Indy Eleven

1.50

Forward Madison

0.33

allows per match

Indy Eleven

0.63

Forward Madison

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Forward Madison+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Forward Madison →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw

92%

Indy Eleven or Forward Madison

81%

Draw or Forward Madison

27%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+

46%

Forward Madison wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals

86%

Indy Eleven 2+ goals

58%

Indy Eleven 3+ goals

31%

Forward Madison 1+ goals

38%

Forward Madison 2+ goals

8%

Forward Madison 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)

90%

Forward Madison (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Forward Madison away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.50 + Forward Madison defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.97

Forward Madison attack 0.33 + Indy Eleven defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Indy Eleven scores more

73%

level

19%

Forward Madison scores more

8%

Indy Eleven at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff