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Indy Eleven vs Atlanta United II — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlanta United II
Atlanta United II
6/9/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 21Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Indy Eleven56%
×Draw23%
Atlanta United II21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
1.87
Atlanta United II
1.06

Indy Eleven creates 76% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 73 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.48
Atlanta United II
1.00

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.11
Atlanta United II
2.26

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Atlanta United II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Atlanta United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
79%
Indy Eleven or Atlanta United II
77%
Draw or Atlanta United II
44%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
32%
Atlanta United II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
85%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
56%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
29%
Atlanta United II 1+ goals
65%
Atlanta United II 2+ goals
29%
Atlanta United II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
73%
Atlanta United II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Atlanta United II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.26 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.48 + Atlanta United II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.87

Atlanta United II attack 1.00 + Indy Eleven defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
56%
level
23%
Atlanta United II scores more
21%

Indy Eleven at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Indy Eleven 2–0 Atlanta United II

Indy Eleven beat Atlanta United II 2-0 in USL Championship on June 9, 2018.

The match was played at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana).