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Indjija vs Proleter Novi SAD — Super Liga 2018

Indjija
Indjija
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
9/1/2019Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 7Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Indjija40%
×Draw27%
Proleter Novi SAD33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indjija
1.28
Proleter Novi SAD
1.14

Indjija creates 12% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 72 away

creates per match

Indjija
1.00
Proleter Novi SAD
0.81

allows per match

Indjija
1.47
Proleter Novi SAD
1.56

finishing

Indjija+0.00on par
Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indjija ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Indjija or draw
67%
Indjija or Proleter Novi SAD
73%
Draw or Proleter Novi SAD
60%

Winning margin

Indjija wins by 2+
18%
Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Indjija 1+ goals
72%
Indjija 2+ goals
37%
Indjija 3+ goals
14%
Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
68%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
32%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Indjija (draw refunded)
55%
Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indjija at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 36 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indjija attack 1.00 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + Indjija defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Indjija scores more
40%
level
27%
Proleter Novi SAD scores more
33%

Indjija at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Indjija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Indjija vs Proleter Novi SAD

Proleter Novi SAD beat Indjija 2-1 in Super Liga on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Inđija.