Sheffield Utd 3–0 Oxford United: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Oxford United

R. Flynn 71'

C. Evans 19', 12'

11/12/2011

League #45 · 1st RoundBramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sheffield Utd62%

×Draw22%

Oxford United16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchOxford United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.86

Sheffield Utd

1.90

Oxford United

0.86

Sheffield Utd creates 121% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.80

creates per match

1.33

0.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.80

Oxford United

1.33

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

0.40

Oxford United

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Oxford United →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

84%

Sheffield Utd or Oxford United

78%

Draw or Oxford United

38%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

37%

Oxford United wins by 2+

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

85%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

56%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

29%

Oxford United 1+ goals

58%

Oxford United 2+ goals

21%

Oxford United 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

79%

Oxford United (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.80 + Oxford United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Oxford United attack 1.33 + Sheffield Utd defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

62%

level

22%

Oxford United scores more

16%

Sheffield Utd at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

C. Evans

19'

C. Evans

46'

H. Worley← P. McLaren

46'

J. Constable← J. Franks

56'

R. Flynn← S. Quinn

60'

J. Payne← P. Leven

71'

R. Flynn

82'

D. McAllister← L. Williamson

Sheffield

Oxford

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

56'▲R. Flynn←▼S. Quinn

82'▲D. McAllister←▼L. Williamson

Sheffield Utd substitutes

FlynnMcAllisterLongParrinoHarriottMcDonaldPorter

46'▲H. Worley←▼P. McLaren

46'▲J. Constable←▼J. Franks

60'▲J. Payne←▼P. Leven

Oxford United substitutes

WorleyConstablePayneJamesTonkinMarshCrocombe