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FC OSS vs Helmond Sport — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC OSS
FC OSS
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
T. Boere 87', 83' (pen)
N. El Aissati 64'
J. Bourdouxhe 18'
8/12/2016Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 2Frans Heesen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

FC OSS39%
×Draw25%
Helmond Sport36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC OSS
1.45
Helmond Sport
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC OSS
1.54
Helmond Sport
1.09

allows per match

FC OSS
1.71
Helmond Sport
1.36

finishing

FC OSS+0.17scores more
Helmond Sport-0.34scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC OSS ↓

Helmond Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC OSS or draw
64%
FC OSS or Helmond Sport
75%
Draw or Helmond Sport
61%

Winning margin

FC OSS wins by 2+
18%
Helmond Sport wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC OSS 1+ goals
77%
FC OSS 2+ goals
42%
FC OSS 3+ goals
18%
Helmond Sport 1+ goals
75%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
41%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FC OSS (draw refunded)
51%
Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC OSS at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.36 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC OSS attack 1.54 + Helmond Sport defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Helmond Sport attack 1.09 + FC OSS defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC OSS scores more
39%
level
25%
Helmond Sport scores more
36%

FC OSS at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC OSS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Dennis Janssen
18'
J. Bourdouxhe
60'
Gillian Justiana
64'
N. El Aissati
66'
M. van Heugten← G. Hiwat
74'
R. van der Venne← F. Kamaçi
77'
Jeroen Verkennis
80'
M. Verkoelen← J. Verkennis
83'
Steven Edwards
83'
T. BoerePenalty
84'
S. Hasani← J. Bourdouxhe
87'
T. Boere
88'
Kivuvu← N. El Aissati
90+1'
J. Mathieu← T. Boere

Match Recap: FC OSS vs Helmond Sport

FC OSS beat Helmond Sport 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on August 12, 2016.

Goals: J. Bourdouxhe (18'), N. El Aissati (64'), T. Boere (83' pen, 87').

The match was played at Frans Heesen Stadion in Oss.