Shandong Luneng 4–1 Hangzhou Greentown

Shandong Luneng

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hangzhou Greentown

P. Cissé 89'

G. Pellè 87'

Wang Yongpo 55'

Jucilei 41'

Sammir 90+3'

7/20/2016

Super League · Round 18Jinan Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Shandong Luneng46%

×Draw24%

Hangzhou Greentown30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.35

Shandong Luneng

1.71

Hangzhou Greentown

1.35

Shandong Luneng creates 27% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 29 away

1.87

creates per match

1.59

1.11

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

1.87

Hangzhou Greentown

1.59

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

1.11

Hangzhou Greentown

1.55

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.38scores more

Hangzhou Greentown-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

70%

Shandong Luneng or Hangzhou Greentown

76%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

54%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

24%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

82%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

51%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

24%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

74%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

39%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

60%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.87 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.59 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

46%

level

24%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

30%

Shandong Luneng at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Jucilei

Shandong Luneng · M

8.0

Match Events

41'

Jucilei

46'

Wang Yongpo← Yang Xu

55'

Wang Yongpo↳ Liu Binbin

58'

Binbin Liu

59'

Ge Zhen← Beom-Seok Oh

59'

Anselmo Ramon← Tan Yang

75'

P. Cissé← W. Montillo

80'

Dai Lin← Liu Binbin

85'

Luo Jing← Chen Po-liang

87'

G. Pellè↳ Zhang Chi

89'

P. Cissé

90+3'

Sammir↳ Ge Zhen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShandongHangzhou

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots12

6Corners5

13Fouls5

Shots

13Total Shots12

7On Target4

4Off Target6

2Blocked2

10Inside Box7

3Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

441Total Passes407

377Accurate Passes343

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1