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FC Copenhagen vs Silkeborg — Superliga 2026

FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Silkeborg
Silkeborg
R. Falk 78'
A. Pavlović 49'
B. Verbič 28', 22'
9/23/2017SuperligaSuperliga · Round 10Telia Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

FC Copenhagen55%
×Draw22%
Silkeborg23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Copenhagen
2.02
Silkeborg
1.25

FC Copenhagen creates 62% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

FC Copenhagen
2.21
Silkeborg
1.36

allows per match

FC Copenhagen
1.15
Silkeborg
1.83

finishing

FC Copenhagen-0.15scores less
Silkeborg+0.24scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

Silkeborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw
77%
FC Copenhagen or Silkeborg
78%
Draw or Silkeborg
45%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
32%
Silkeborg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
87%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
60%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
33%
Silkeborg 1+ goals
71%
Silkeborg 2+ goals
36%
Silkeborg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
70%
Silkeborg (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.15 · 18 matches

Silkeborg away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.21 + Silkeborg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.02

Silkeborg attack 1.36 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more
55%
level
22%
Silkeborg scores more
23%

FC Copenhagen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
B. Verbič
28'
B. Verbič
36'
Michael Lüftner
39'
Peter Ankersen
46'
G. Nilsson← T. Sahlquist
49'
A. Pavlović
52'
Ibrahim Moro
57'
J. Okkels← M. Rochester Sørensen
70'
R. Falk← K. Kusk
71'
C. Sloth← D. Skhirtladze
78'
R. Falk
79'
C. Holse← P. Soteriou
81'
M. Pusic← A. Pavlović

Possession

56%FC

Shots

12FC

Statistics

FCSilkeborg
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots9
7Corners3
12Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots9
8On Target3
4Off Target6
Passing
56%Possession44%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
6Offsides1

Superliga: FC Copenhagen 4–0 Silkeborg

FC Copenhagen beat Silkeborg 4-0 in Superliga on September 23, 2017.

Goals: B. Verbič (22', 28'), A. Pavlović (49'), R. Falk (78').

FC Copenhagen controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Telia Parken in København.