Independiente vs Union Santa Fe — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 6+ matches
Independiente38%
Union Santa Fe31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Independiente creates 14% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Independiente ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Independiente at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.93 · 6 matches
Union Santa Fe away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.03 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Independiente attack 1.11 + Union Santa Fe defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07
Union Santa Fe attack 0.94 + Independiente defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Independiente at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Racing Club
Defensa Y Justicia
Boca Juniors
River Plate
Atletico Tucuman
Velez SarsfieldIndependienteUnion Santa Fe
Tigre
Huracan
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
Aldosivi
Godoy Cruz
Newells Old Boys
Banfield
Estudiantes L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
Patronato
Rosario Central
San Martin S.J.
Belgrano Cordoba
San Lorenzo
Colon Santa Fe
San Martin Tucuman
Argentinos JrsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Independiente host Union Santa Fe on Tuesday, 26 October 2021 at 00:15. The match is part of the Liga Profesional Argentina 2018/2019 season.
Liga Profesional Argentina: Independiente 1–0 Union Santa Fe
Independiente beat Union Santa Fe 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 26, 2021.
The match was played at Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.