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Independiente vs San Antonio Unido — Segunda División 2020

Independiente
Independiente
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
San Antonio Unido
San Antonio Unido
11/5/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Fiscal de Talca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Independiente38%
×Draw27%
San Antonio Unido35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
1.29
San Antonio Unido
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 71 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.27
San Antonio Unido
1.20

allows per match

Independiente
1.27
San Antonio Unido
1.31

finishing

Independiente+0.00on par
San Antonio Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

San Antonio Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
65%
Independiente or San Antonio Unido
73%
Draw or San Antonio Unido
62%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
17%
San Antonio Unido wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
72%
Independiente 2+ goals
37%
Independiente 3+ goals
14%
San Antonio Unido 1+ goals
71%
San Antonio Unido 2+ goals
35%
San Antonio Unido 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
52%
San Antonio Unido (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

San Antonio Unido away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.27 + San Antonio Unido defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

San Antonio Unido attack 1.20 + Independiente defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Independiente scores more
38%
level
27%
San Antonio Unido scores more
35%

Independiente at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Independiente 2–1 San Antonio Unido

Independiente beat San Antonio Unido 2-1 in Segunda División on November 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Fiscal de Talca in Talca.