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Independiente vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Independiente
Independiente
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Platense
Platense
L. Rodríguez 22'
V. Taborda 90+1'
H. Tijanovich 72'
A. Sabella 44'
7/5/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Independiente45%
×Draw32%
Platense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
1.12
Platense
0.71

Independiente creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.03
Platense
0.73

allows per match

Independiente
0.69
Platense
1.21

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more
Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
77%
Independiente or Platense
68%
Draw or Platense
55%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
19%
Platense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
67%
Independiente 2+ goals
31%
Independiente 3+ goals
10%
Platense 1+ goals
51%
Platense 2+ goals
16%
Platense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
66%
Platense (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.12

Platense attack 0.73 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Independiente scores more
45%
level
32%
Platense scores more
23%

Independiente at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
A. SabellaPlatensePlatense · F
7.7

Match Events

22'
L. Rodríguez↳ L. Benegas
44'
A. Sabella↳ R. Contreras
46'
H. Tijanovich← H. Ruiz Díaz
53'
Lucas Rodríguez
55'
Sergio Barreto
58'
G. Hachen← L. González
58'
J. Cazares← A. Soñora
60'
Juan Manuel Insaurralde
65'
Juan Pablo Pignani
70'
I. Schor← A. Sabella
72'
H. Tijanovich
76'
D. Batallini← L. Fernández
81'
Mauro Zárate
83'
S. Guerrero← R. Contreras
84'
V. Taborda← M. Zárate
90+1'
V. Taborda↳ I. Schor

Possession

67%Independiente

Shots

13Independiente

Pass accuracy

56%Independiente

Statistics

IndependientePlatense
Overview
67%Possession33%
13Total Shots14
4Corners5
16Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots14
5On Target8
6Off Target3
2Blocked3
6Inside Box8
7Outside Box6
Passing
67%Possession33%
545Total Passes270
473Accurate Passes184
87%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Independiente 1–3 Platense

Platense beat Independiente 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 5, 2022.

Goals: L. Rodríguez (22'), A. Sabella (44'), H. Tijanovich (72'), V. Taborda (90+1').

Independiente controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.