Independiente Petrolero 0–1 Aurora: Result & Stats

Independiente Petrolero

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aurora

4/15/2024

Primera División · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Olímpico Patria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Independiente Petrolero53%

×Draw23%

Aurora24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente PetroleroExpected goals in this matchAurora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.12

Independiente Petrolero

1.80

Aurora

1.12

Independiente Petrolero creates 61% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 129 away

1.75

creates per match

1.03

1.21

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.75

Aurora

1.03

allows per match

Independiente Petrolero

1.21

Aurora

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Aurora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Petrolero ↓

Aurora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Independiente Petrolero or draw

76%

Independiente Petrolero or Aurora

77%

Draw or Aurora

47%

Winning margin

Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+

30%

Aurora wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals

83%

Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals

54%

Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals

27%

Aurora 1+ goals

67%

Aurora 2+ goals

31%

Aurora 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)

69%

Aurora (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Petrolero at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Aurora away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.85 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.75 + Aurora defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.80

Aurora attack 1.03 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Independiente Petrolero scores more

53%

level

23%

Aurora scores more

24%

Independiente Petrolero at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente Petrolero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff