Independiente Medellín W 3–1 Real San Andrés W

Independiente Medellín W

FT

3 – 1

Real San Andrés W

11/28/2020

Liga Femenina · Quarter-finalsEstadio Metropolitano de Itagüí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Independiente Medellín W68%

×Draw18%

Real San Andrés W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente Medellín WExpected goals in this matchReal San Andrés W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

0.89

Independiente Medellín W

2.28

Real San Andrés W

0.89

Independiente Medellín W creates 156% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 32 away

1.84

creates per match

0.75

1.02

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

Independiente Medellín W

1.84

Real San Andrés W

0.75

allows per match

Independiente Medellín W

1.02

Real San Andrés W

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellín W+0.00on par

Real San Andrés W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellín W ↓

Real San Andrés W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Independiente Medellín W or draw

87%

Independiente Medellín W or Real San Andrés W

82%

Draw or Real San Andrés W

32%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellín W wins by 2+

45%

Real San Andrés W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Independiente Medellín W 1+ goals

90%

Independiente Medellín W 2+ goals

66%

Independiente Medellín W 3+ goals

39%

Real San Andrés W 1+ goals

59%

Real San Andrés W 2+ goals

22%

Real San Andrés W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellín W (draw refunded)

84%

Real San Andrés W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellín W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Real San Andrés W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellín W attack 1.84 + Real San Andrés W defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.28

Real San Andrés W attack 0.75 + Independiente Medellín W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Independiente Medellín W scores more

68%

level

18%

Real San Andrés W scores more

13%

Independiente Medellín W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Independiente Medellín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff