Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe

Independiente Medellin

Preview

01:15

Santa Fe

10/4/2026

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Big match

48%

Independiente Medellin

model favours

48%28%24%

Santa Fe are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

63%

under 2.5 goals

42%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Independiente Medellin48%

×Draw28%

Santa Fe24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.85

Independiente Medellin

1.34

Santa Fe

0.85

Independiente Medellin creates 58% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.45

creates per match

0.96

0.75

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.45

Santa Fe

0.96

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.75

Santa Fe

1.23

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.03on par

Santa Fe+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

76%

Independiente Medellin or Santa Fe

72%

Draw or Santa Fe

52%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

23%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

74%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

39%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

15%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

57%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

21%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

67%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.45 + Santa Fe defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Santa Fe attack 0.96 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

48%

level

28%

Santa Fe scores more

24%

Independiente Medellin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Independiente Medellin score first in only 17% of matches
Santa Fe score first in only 25% of matches
67% of Independiente Medellin’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Top-of-the-table clash — Independiente Medellin 2 vs Santa Fe 4
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Independiente Medellin

Attack-heavy

Santa Fe

Balanced

53%Possession49%

80%Pass accuracy76%

14.1ShotsBiggest gap12.9

1.23xG1.19

Independiente MedellinSanta Fe

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2

Independiente Medellin

4

Draws

4

Santa Fe

Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 70%

1–21–13–01–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Medellin

WDLWD

Fe

WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff