Independiente Medellin 2–1 Millonarios

Independiente Medellin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Millonarios

12/1/2023

Primera A · Clausura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 183+ matches

Independiente Medellin45%

×Draw27%

Millonarios28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.00

Independiente Medellin

1.35

Millonarios

1.00

Independiente Medellin creates 35% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 190 away

1.57

creates per match

1.19

0.82

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.57

Millonarios

1.19

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.82

Millonarios

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Millonarios+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

72%

Independiente Medellin or Millonarios

73%

Draw or Millonarios

55%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

21%

Millonarios wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

74%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

39%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

15%

Millonarios 1+ goals

63%

Millonarios 2+ goals

26%

Millonarios 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

62%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 183 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 190 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Millonarios defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.35

Millonarios attack 1.19 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

45%

level

27%

Millonarios scores more

28%

Independiente Medellin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff