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Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios — Copa Colombia 2026

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Millonarios
Millonarios
G. Cano 86'
A. Cadavid 28'
C. Arango 82'
8/8/2019Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 8th Finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Independiente Medellin35%
×Draw26%
Millonarios39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.25
Millonarios
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.39
Millonarios
1.68

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
1.00
Millonarios
1.11

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Millonarios+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Millonarios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
61%
Independiente Medellin or Millonarios
74%
Draw or Millonarios
65%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
15%
Millonarios wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
71%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
36%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
13%
Millonarios 1+ goals
74%
Millonarios 2+ goals
39%
Millonarios 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
47%
Millonarios (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.39 + Millonarios defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Millonarios attack 1.68 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
35%
level
26%
Millonarios scores more
39%

Millonarios at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
A. Cadavid
82'
C. Arango
86'
G. Cano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios

Independiente Medellin beat Millonarios 2-1 in Copa Colombia on August 8, 2019.

Goals: A. Cadavid (28'), C. Arango (82'), G. Cano (86').