Independiente Medellin 1–0 Millonarios

Independiente Medellin

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Millonarios

L. Castro 16'

2/15/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 3Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Independiente Medellin46%

×Draw28%

Millonarios26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.94

Independiente Medellin

1.34

Millonarios

0.94

Independiente Medellin creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

1.53

creates per match

1.16

0.73

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.53

Millonarios

1.16

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.73

Millonarios

1.16

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.15scores less

Millonarios+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

74%

Independiente Medellin or Millonarios

72%

Draw or Millonarios

54%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

22%

Millonarios wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

74%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

39%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

15%

Millonarios 1+ goals

61%

Millonarios 2+ goals

24%

Millonarios 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

64%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.73 · 13 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.53 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Millonarios attack 1.16 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

46%

level

28%

Millonarios scores more

26%

Independiente Medellin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Ricaurte

Independiente Medellin · M

7.8

Match Events

16'

29'

32'

33'

64'

C. Carrillo← J. Duque

67'

C. Huérfano← S. Montoya

69'

J. Hernández← G. Cano

77'

E. Quiñónes← D. Silva

87'

J. Caicedo← L. Castro

89'

D. Restrepo← A. Ricaurte

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteMillonarios

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots21

3Corners4

10Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots21

2On Target5

6Off Target12

1Blocked4

5Inside Box5

4Outside Box16

Passing

46%Possession54%

386Total Passes437

294Accurate Passes358

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0