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Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC
2/17/2024Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Independiente Medellin52%
×Draw26%
Fortaleza FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.48
Fortaleza FC
0.84

Independiente Medellin creates 76% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 52 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.57
Fortaleza FC
0.87

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.82
Fortaleza FC
1.40

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Fortaleza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Fortaleza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
79%
Independiente Medellin or Fortaleza FC
74%
Draw or Fortaleza FC
48%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
27%
Fortaleza FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
77%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
43%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
19%
Fortaleza FC 1+ goals
57%
Fortaleza FC 2+ goals
21%
Fortaleza FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
71%
Fortaleza FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 183 matches

Fortaleza FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Fortaleza FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Fortaleza FC attack 0.87 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
52%
level
26%
Fortaleza FC scores more
21%

Independiente Medellin at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza FC

Independiente Medellin and Fortaleza FC drew 2-2 in Primera A on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.