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Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
America de Cali
America de Cali
9/11/2022Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Independiente Medellin49%
×Draw29%
America de Cali22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.26
America de Cali
0.74

Independiente Medellin creates 70% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.28
America de Cali
0.79

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.70
America de Cali
1.24

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.39scores more
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
78%
Independiente Medellin or America de Cali
71%
Draw or America de Cali
51%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
22%
America de Cali wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
72%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
36%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
13%
America de Cali 1+ goals
52%
America de Cali 2+ goals
17%
America de Cali 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
69%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.70 · 9 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.24 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.28 + America de Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.26

America de Cali attack 0.79 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
49%
level
29%
America de Cali scores more
22%

Independiente Medellin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera A: Independiente Medellin 2–0 America de Cali

Independiente Medellin beat America de Cali 2-0 in Primera A on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.