Independiente Medellin 2–1 America de Cali

Independiente Medellin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

America de Cali

A. Cadavid 57'

V. Hernández 45+2'

A. Ramos 48'

3/10/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Independiente Medellin57%

×Draw24%

America de Cali19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.90

Independiente Medellin

1.73

America de Cali

0.90

Independiente Medellin creates 92% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.11

creates per match

0.91

0.89

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

2.11

America de Cali

0.91

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.89

America de Cali

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

81%

Independiente Medellin or America de Cali

76%

Draw or America de Cali

43%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

32%

America de Cali wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

82%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

52%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

25%

America de Cali 1+ goals

59%

America de Cali 2+ goals

23%

America de Cali 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

75%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 2.11 + America de Cali defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

America de Cali attack 0.91 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

57%

level

24%

America de Cali scores more

19%

Independiente Medellin at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

V. Hernández

Independiente Medellin · M

8.0

Match Events

45+2'

V. Hernández

46'

J. Portilla← L. Paz

46'

J. Micolta← E. Moreno

48'

A. Ramos↳ J. Micolta

57'

A. Cadavid

62'

D. Pino← Iago Falqué

63'

A. Quintana← A. Ramos

75'

J. Méndez← A. Arregui

83'

D. Cambindo← L. Pons

90+1'

J. Hernández← V. Hernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteAmerica

Overview

52%Possession48%

24Total Shots8

6Corners1

9Fouls14

Shots

24Total Shots8

6On Target4

11Off Target3

7Blocked1

11Inside Box6

13Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

380Total Passes366

292Accurate Passes262

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Offsides1