Independiente Medellin 3–1 America de Cali

Independiente Medellin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

America de Cali

G. Cano 86'

D. Cataño 38'

Y. Moreno 17'

C. Martínez 69' (pen)

5/4/2018

Primera A · Apertura - 14Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Independiente Medellin51%

×Draw28%

America de Cali21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.77

Independiente Medellin

1.38

America de Cali

0.77

Independiente Medellin creates 79% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

1.45

creates per match

0.78

0.75

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.45

America de Cali

0.78

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.75

America de Cali

1.30

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin-0.03on par

America de Cali-0.03on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

79%

Independiente Medellin or America de Cali

72%

Draw or America de Cali

49%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

25%

America de Cali wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

75%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

40%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

16%

America de Cali 1+ goals

54%

America de Cali 2+ goals

18%

America de Cali 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

71%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

America de Cali away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.30 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.45 + America de Cali defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.38

America de Cali attack 0.78 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

51%

level

28%

America de Cali scores more

21%

Independiente Medellin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Y. Moreno

Independiente Medellin · M

9.2

Match Events

16'

17'

23'

38'

44'

45'

46'

Y. Anchico← H. Pertúz

46'

A. Mora← J. Nieva

46'

47'

58'

60'

68'

69'

L. Castro← J. Caicedo

69'

C. MartínezPenalty

75'

Y. Contreras← D. Arboleda

76'

78'

86'

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteAmerica

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots8

8Corners4

25Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots8

6On Target2

5Off Target4

1Blocked2

5Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

394Total Passes411

340Accurate Passes355

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

25Fouls20

5Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali

Independiente Medellin beat America de Cali 3-1 in Primera A on May 4, 2018.

Goals: Y. Moreno (17'), D. Cataño (38'), C. Martínez (69' pen), G. Cano (86').

America de Cali controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.

Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs America de Cali