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Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Águilas Doradas
Águilas Doradas
3/5/2023Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

Independiente Medellin50%
×Draw27%
Águilas Doradas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.44
Águilas Doradas
0.90

Independiente Medellin creates 60% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 170 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.57
Águilas Doradas
0.97

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.82
Águilas Doradas
1.30

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Águilas Doradas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
76%
Independiente Medellin or Águilas Doradas
73%
Draw or Águilas Doradas
50%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
25%
Águilas Doradas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
76%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
42%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
18%
Águilas Doradas 1+ goals
59%
Águilas Doradas 2+ goals
23%
Águilas Doradas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
68%
Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 183 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.30 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Águilas Doradas attack 0.97 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
50%
level
27%
Águilas Doradas scores more
24%

Independiente Medellin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente Medellin 3 – 0 Águilas Doradas

Independiente Medellin beat Águilas Doradas 3-0 in Primera A on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.