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Independiente F.b.c. vs Atlético Colegiales — Division Intermedia 2018

Independiente F.b.c.
Independiente F.b.c.
CANC
14:00
Atlético Colegiales
Atlético Colegiales
5/18/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 8Estadio Ricardo Gregor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Independiente F.b.c.54%
×Draw24%
Atlético Colegiales22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente F.b.c.
1.71
Atlético Colegiales
1.01

Independiente F.b.c. creates 69% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 44 away

creates per match

Independiente F.b.c.
1.37
Atlético Colegiales
0.98

allows per match

Independiente F.b.c.
1.04
Atlético Colegiales
2.05

finishing

Independiente F.b.c.+0.00on par
Atlético Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente F.b.c. ↓

Atlético Colegiales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Independiente F.b.c. or draw
78%
Independiente F.b.c. or Atlético Colegiales
76%
Draw or Atlético Colegiales
46%

Winning margin

Independiente F.b.c. wins by 2+
29%
Atlético Colegiales wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente F.b.c. 1+ goals
82%
Independiente F.b.c. 2+ goals
51%
Independiente F.b.c. 3+ goals
24%
Atlético Colegiales 1+ goals
64%
Atlético Colegiales 2+ goals
27%
Atlético Colegiales 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independiente F.b.c. (draw refunded)
71%
Atlético Colegiales (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente F.b.c. at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.04 · 98 matches

Atlético Colegiales away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente F.b.c. attack 1.37 + Atlético Colegiales defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.71

Atlético Colegiales attack 0.98 + Independiente F.b.c. defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independiente F.b.c. scores more
54%
level
24%
Atlético Colegiales scores more
22%

Independiente F.b.c. at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente F.b.c. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Independiente F.b.c. face Atlético Colegiales (Division Intermedia)

Division Intermedia returns with Independiente F.b.c. hosting Atlético Colegiales. Match starts May 18, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Independiente F.b.c. host Atlético Colegiales at Estadio Ricardo Gregor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.