Independiente F.b.c. 1–1 3 de Febrero

Independiente F.b.c.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

3 de Febrero

3/18/2018

Division Profesional - Apertura · Round 8Estadio Ricardo Gregor (Luque)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Independiente F.b.c.52%

×Draw23%

3 de Febrero25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente F.b.c.Expected goals in this match3 de Febrero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.23

Independiente F.b.c.

1.86

3 de Febrero

1.23

Independiente F.b.c. creates 51% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.82

creates per match

0.91

1.55

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Independiente F.b.c.

1.82

3 de Febrero

0.91

allows per match

Independiente F.b.c.

1.55

3 de Febrero

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente F.b.c.+0.00on par

3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente F.b.c. ↓

3 de Febrero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Independiente F.b.c. or draw

75%

Independiente F.b.c. or 3 de Febrero

77%

Draw or 3 de Febrero

48%

Winning margin

Independiente F.b.c. wins by 2+

29%

3 de Febrero wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Independiente F.b.c. 1+ goals

84%

Independiente F.b.c. 2+ goals

55%

Independiente F.b.c. 3+ goals

28%

3 de Febrero 1+ goals

71%

3 de Febrero 2+ goals

35%

3 de Febrero 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Independiente F.b.c. (draw refunded)

67%

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente F.b.c. at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente F.b.c. attack 1.82 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.86

3 de Febrero attack 0.91 + Independiente F.b.c. defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Independiente F.b.c. scores more

52%

level

23%

3 de Febrero scores more

25%

Independiente F.b.c. at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Independiente F.b.c. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff