Independiente de La Chorrera vs Sporting San Miguelito

Independiente de La Chorrera

Preview

23:15

Sporting San Miguelito

9/19/2026

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 9

Big match

45%

Independiente de La Chorrera

model favours

45%29%27%

1–0

likely score

63%

under 2.5 goals

43%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Independiente de La Chorrera45%

×Draw29%

Sporting San Miguelito27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente de La ChorreraExpected goals in this matchSporting San Miguelito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.91

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.27

Sporting San Miguelito

0.91

Independiente de La Chorrera creates 40% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 132 away

1.56

creates per match

0.94

0.88

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.56

Sporting San Miguelito

0.94

allows per match

Independiente de La Chorrera

0.88

Sporting San Miguelito

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par

Sporting San Miguelito+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente de La Chorrera ↓

Sporting San Miguelito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Independiente de La Chorrera or draw

73%

Independiente de La Chorrera or Sporting San Miguelito

71%

Draw or Sporting San Miguelito

55%

Winning margin

Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+

20%

Sporting San Miguelito wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals

72%

Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals

36%

Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals

14%

Sporting San Miguelito 1+ goals

60%

Sporting San Miguelito 2+ goals

23%

Sporting San Miguelito 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)

63%

Sporting San Miguelito (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente de La Chorrera at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.88 · 136 matches

Sporting San Miguelito away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.99 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 1.56 + Sporting San Miguelito defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sporting San Miguelito attack 0.94 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Independiente de La Chorrera scores more

45%

level

29%

Sporting San Miguelito scores more

27%

Independiente de La Chorrera at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Independiente de La Chorrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Chorrera

DLWDD

Miguelito

LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff