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Independiente de La Chorrera vs Herrera — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

Independiente de La Chorrera
Independiente de La Chorrera
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Herrera
Herrera
1/22/2023Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 2Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Independiente de La Chorrera53%
×Draw25%
Herrera22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente de La Chorrera
1.58
Herrera
0.93

Independiente de La Chorrera creates 70% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 92 away

creates per match

Independiente de La Chorrera
1.56
Herrera
0.97

allows per match

Independiente de La Chorrera
0.88
Herrera
1.60

finishing

Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par
Herrera+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente de La Chorrera ↓

Herrera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Independiente de La Chorrera or draw
78%
Independiente de La Chorrera or Herrera
75%
Draw or Herrera
47%

Winning margin

Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+
28%
Herrera wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals
79%
Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals
47%
Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals
21%
Herrera 1+ goals
61%
Herrera 2+ goals
24%
Herrera 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)
70%
Herrera (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente de La Chorrera at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.88 · 136 matches

Herrera away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.60 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 1.56 + Herrera defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Herrera attack 0.97 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Independiente de La Chorrera scores more
53%
level
25%
Herrera scores more
22%

Independiente de La Chorrera at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente de La Chorrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente de La Chorrera vs Herrera

Herrera beat Independiente de La Chorrera 3-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez in La Chorrera.