Independiente de La Chorrera 2–1 Atlético Chiriquí

Independiente de La Chorrera

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Chiriquí

5/5/2022

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 12Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Independiente de La Chorrera61%

×Draw23%

Atlético Chiriquí16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente de La ChorreraExpected goals in this matchAtlético Chiriquí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.77

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.77

Atlético Chiriquí

0.77

Independiente de La Chorrera creates 130% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 66 away

1.56

creates per match

0.65

0.88

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.56

Atlético Chiriquí

0.65

allows per match

Independiente de La Chorrera

0.88

Atlético Chiriquí

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par

Atlético Chiriquí+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente de La Chorrera ↓

Atlético Chiriquí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Independiente de La Chorrera or draw

84%

Independiente de La Chorrera or Atlético Chiriquí

77%

Draw or Atlético Chiriquí

39%

Winning margin

Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+

35%

Atlético Chiriquí wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals

83%

Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals

53%

Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals

26%

Atlético Chiriquí 1+ goals

54%

Atlético Chiriquí 2+ goals

18%

Atlético Chiriquí 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)

79%

Atlético Chiriquí (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente de La Chorrera at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.88 · 136 matches

Atlético Chiriquí away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.97 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 1.56 + Atlético Chiriquí defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Atlético Chiriquí attack 0.65 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Independiente de La Chorrera scores more

61%

level

23%

Atlético Chiriquí scores more

16%

Independiente de La Chorrera at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Independiente de La Chorrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff