Independiente De Chivilcoy 0–0 9 de Julio Rafaela

Independiente De Chivilcoy

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

9 de Julio Rafaela

7/13/2024

Torneo Federal A · Group 3 - 18Estadio Raúl Orlando Lungarzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Independiente De Chivilcoy53%

×Draw28%

9 de Julio Rafaela19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente De ChivilcoyExpected goals in this match9 de Julio Rafaela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.69

Independiente De Chivilcoy

1.35

9 de Julio Rafaela

0.69

Independiente De Chivilcoy creates 96% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 53 away

1.32

creates per match

0.70

0.69

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy

1.32

9 de Julio Rafaela

0.70

allows per match

Independiente De Chivilcoy

0.69

9 de Julio Rafaela

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente De Chivilcoy+0.00on par

9 de Julio Rafaela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente De Chivilcoy ↓

9 de Julio Rafaela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Independiente De Chivilcoy or draw

81%

Independiente De Chivilcoy or 9 de Julio Rafaela

72%

Draw or 9 de Julio Rafaela

47%

Winning margin

Independiente De Chivilcoy wins by 2+

26%

9 de Julio Rafaela wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente De Chivilcoy 1+ goals

74%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 2+ goals

39%

Independiente De Chivilcoy 3+ goals

15%

9 de Julio Rafaela 1+ goals

50%

9 de Julio Rafaela 2+ goals

15%

9 de Julio Rafaela 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Independiente De Chivilcoy (draw refunded)

73%

9 de Julio Rafaela (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente De Chivilcoy at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.69 · 88 matches

9 de Julio Rafaela away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente De Chivilcoy attack 1.32 + 9 de Julio Rafaela defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

9 de Julio Rafaela attack 0.70 + Independiente De Chivilcoy defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Independiente De Chivilcoy scores more

53%

level

28%

9 de Julio Rafaela scores more

19%

Independiente De Chivilcoy at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Independiente De Chivilcoy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

M. Pedrozo

61'

T. Androetto← A. Alfano

61'

B. Peralta← A. López

61'

L. Quiroz← A. Vera

76'

A. Ceccherini← S. Colombatti

78'

W. Romero← J. Ford

78'

C. Taborda← E. Benítez

82'

A. Baldasarre← F. Déboli

87'

G. Melgarejo← T. Rodríguez

Independiente

9

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Olmedo

78'▲W. Romero←▼J. Ford

78'▲C. Taborda←▼E. Benítez

87'▲G. Melgarejo←▼T. Rodríguez

Independiente De Chivilcoy substitutes

RomeroTabordaMelgarejo

Manager: M. Barbero

61'▲T. Androetto←▼A. Alfano

61'▲B. Peralta←▼A. López

61'▲L. Quiroz←▼A. Vera

76'▲A. Ceccherini←▼S. Colombatti

82'▲A. Baldasarre←▼F. Déboli

9 de Julio Rafaela substitutes

AndroettoPeraltaQuirozCeccheriniBaldasarre