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Ind. Juniors vs Santa Rita — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Ind. Juniors
Ind. Juniors
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
A. Domínguez 71'
5/4/2019Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 9Estadio Municipal La Cocha (Latacunga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ind. Juniors50%
×Draw28%
Santa Rita22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ind. Juniors
1.34
Santa Rita
0.77

Ind. Juniors creates 74% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 49 away

creates per match

Ind. Juniors
1.44
Santa Rita
0.69

allows per match

Ind. Juniors
0.85
Santa Rita
1.24

finishing

Ind. Juniors+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ind. Juniors ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ind. Juniors or draw
78%
Ind. Juniors or Santa Rita
72%
Draw or Santa Rita
50%

Winning margin

Ind. Juniors wins by 2+
24%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ind. Juniors 1+ goals
74%
Ind. Juniors 2+ goals
39%
Ind. Juniors 3+ goals
15%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
54%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
18%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ind. Juniors (draw refunded)
70%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ind. Juniors at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.85 · 124 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ind. Juniors attack 1.44 + Santa Rita defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Santa Rita attack 0.69 + Ind. Juniors defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ind. Juniors scores more
50%
level
28%
Santa Rita scores more
22%

Ind. Juniors at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ind. Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
A. Domínguez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Ind. Juniors 1–0 Santa Rita

Ind. Juniors beat Santa Rita 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on May 4, 2019.

Goals: A. Domínguez (71').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Cocha (Latacunga).